Wednesday, July 13, 2011

How the US can still untangle itself from the Yemen dilemma

Alarabiya.net English

Anti-government protesters attend a rally to demand the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh at Tagheer Square in Sana'a. (File Photo)
Anti-government protesters attend a rally to demand the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh at Tagheer Square in Sana'a. (File Photo)
Nearly a month ago, Robert M. Gates, who was then US Secretary of Defense, spoke to the Associated Press about, amongst other things, Yemen. He said he didn’t think there would be a “full blown war there.”

To some extent, he was right but Yemen appears to be in a state where it is on the edge of disorder; one small tilt and it falls into full blown chaos.

Perhaps the same is true for the Obama administration’s policy on Yemen—that it is sitting on the fence in regards to the country’s leadership but is fixated on upping the ante on Al Qaeda in Yemen. To this end, it has increased the use of drone strikes in Yemen in a bid to eliminate Al Qaeda militants.
An injured but still defiant President Ali Abdullah Saleh says he’s poised to return home on July 17, even if promises of his homecomings have been rife since he was injured in an attack at his presidential palace on June 3. Naysayers believe his return is just a publicity attempt.

However, could it be that Mr. Saleh feels bolstered by reports in the Western media about a dispirited youth whose numbers in rallies are dwindling—albeit not in significant numbers, but enough to make Mr. Saleh feel he isn’t as irrelevant as it was believed?

There are essentially two questions analysts are scrambling to answer: One questions Mr. Saleh’s future and the second deals with the Obama administration’s use of drone strikes in Yemen.

There is an inextricable link between the two, especially if one remembers that Mr. Saleh was quickly relegated to the ranks of former presidents of Tunisia and Egypt but seems to be holding on for dearer life than the erstwhile leaders. This means he is still relevant to the quagmire that is turning out to be Yemen’s political future—even if it is for a brief “transitional” period in which he hands over power to his deputies.

Mr. Saleh’s relevance can be gauged from his still popular support base as evidenced by the huge numbers that turned out to show their support after his televised address last Friday. The hardly recognizable president, dressed in traditional clothes (why do leaders revert to tradition when faced with pressure? Do they really believe people will change their mind because their president has shorn his suits for thobes?) was defiant in his televised speech which was followed a day later by an announcement from an official of his plans to return.

A report in the New York Times on July 8 said that the activists and students that started the protests in Sana’a a few months ago appear disenchanted, “dispirited and divided.” The numbers attending anti-government protests still numbered in the tens of thousands but it seems to have lost the zing—which explains why even the Atlantic Wire chose to title their report “Yemen Uprising Appears to be Stagnating.”

This is pitted against a backdrop of the Obama administration’s plans to widen their drone strikes against Al Qaeda in Yemen and their private belief that Mr. Saleh will support whatever choices they make in a bid to nab the terror outfit.

The inextricable link only addresses the issue as a quick fix. Drone strikes, like keeping Mr. Saleh around to allow their sanction, achieve short-term results because the deaths of top leadership only weakens Al Qaeda momentarily. It allows them to press pause on their terror plans, regroup, re-energize, re-strategize and come back with a bigger bang.

To think that Al Qaeada will be weakened in the long run in Yemen is foolish.

The long-term strategy involves, just like the US is learning in Afghanistan, talking to elements that it once spent precious time trying to get rid of. This isn’t to suggest that Al Qaeda be put on the negotiating table as much as tribal leaders with sympathies to them be made part of the narrative to eliminate militancy.

Drone strikes in Pakistan have killed scores of innocent civilians, as they have in Yemen. In both instances, this has caused huge outrage and inevitably led to Al Qaeda gaining sympathy and willing recruits to their cause. Drone strikes have, in the long run, strengthened militants.

There is no quick and easy solution to the civil unrest in Yemen and the issue of Al Qaeda in Yemen. Mr. Saleh or drone strikes are not the solutions to issues of poor infrastructure, corruption, issues of socio and economic injustice, nor should the country be seen as an issue that requires counterterrorism strategy.

Unless the Obama administration removes any link between the two, it will contribute to the strengthening of the terrorist group which will in turn broaden the war into one that will be difficult to disengage from.

(Muna Khan is Senior Correspondent at Al Arabiya English. She can be reached at: muna.khan@mbc.net)

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