Pollster: Raila drops as rivals record gains

Thursday, 21st July 2011

By Lucianne Limo
A new opinion poll appears to suggest Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s lead over his rivals has slipped from six months ago.
The research by pollster Synovate Kenya shows that while the PM is still the most preferred presidential candidate with 32 per cent, a drop of six per cent, his closest challenger, Uhuru, is now at 21 per cent, a three per cent gain, followed by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP William Ruto who are tied at 11 per cent each, an increase of three per cent.
However, none of the presidential contenders would garner the mandatory 50 per cent + one per cent votes if elections were called today, and so the possibility of a run-off would be necessary to declare a winner.
The Constitution says a presidential candidate needs more than half (over 50per cent) of all votes cast in the election, and not less than 25 per cent of ballots cast in 24 counties.
In the latest polling, Gichugu MP and Narc Kenya chair Martha Karua garnered 5 per cent, followed by Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa (3 per cent), Peter Kenneth (2 per cent). Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Kenneth Marende each got one per cent.
The latest opinion poll is a big variation from others released by another pollster Strategic Research over the weekend, when Raila was rated at 42 per cent.
In April this year, the PM’s approval, also released by Synovate, showed his popularity had again declined by 10 per cent in six months. The findings released also indicated the PM was the most preferred presidential candidate with 38 per cent of Kenyans saying they would vote for him if elections were held then.
Mr Odinga’s rating was 48 per cent in October last year.
Waning popularityIn April Uhuru (18 per cent) was second behind the PM, followed by VP Kalonzo Musyoka (13 per cent) and William Ruto (8 per cent).
The latest Synovate poll also indicated that Karua’s rating has dropped by one per cent since April, while Wamalwa’s rating remained constant at three per cent.
Also remaining constant were Mudavadi, Marende and Gatanga MP Kenneth who garnered one per cent each.
The popularity of most presidential candidates therefore, according to the Synovate poll, seems to have waned as compared to poll results released by Strategic Research and PR last Friday where Raila polled 42.6 per cent against Uhuru’s 21.4 per cent, followed by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka (9.5 per cent).
Of the other presidential hopefuls, William Ruto polled 8.3 per cent and Karua 7.8 per cent, while Mudavadi, Wamalwa, Kenneth, Saitoti and Ngilu polled 2.8, 2.1, 1.9, 0.8 and 0.6 per cent respectively. All presidential aspirants got most support from their counties.
So far at least 10 candidates have declared their interest in the top job in Kenya.
These include Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Wamalwa, Karua, Water Minister Charity Ngilu, Uhuru, Kenneth, Education Permanent Secretary James Ole Kiyiapi and lawyer Paul Muite.
Another Synovate report released on May 1, 2011 said 20 per cent of Kenyans prefer Raila to have Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate.
The sample further indicated that eight per cent would prefer a combination of Kalonzo Musyoka for President and Uhuru Kenyatta as his running mate.
The polling carried out between March 1 and April 27 centred mainly on presidential candidates and their running mates. It indicated that a Uhuru ticket with Ruto as his running mate could have drawn only six per cent support, while five per cent could have preferred a Raila and Martha Karua combination.
Elect presidentsBut 35 per cent of those who would have voted for Uhuru at the time would have preferred Kalonzo as his running mate.
In Wednesday’s poll, Synovate said Kenyans indicated they will elect their president based on his or her good leadership skills, integrity, reformist, development conscious, one who cares for their welfare and young candidate.
According to the pollster ODM is the most popular party (33 per cent) followed by PNU (23 per cent) ODM-K (9 per cent) Narc-K (3 per cent) UDM (3 per cent) Ford K and Kanu (one per cent each) and Narc (one per cent).
The poll also indicates the overall performance of the Grand Coalition Government has dwindled in the past three months. Kenyans also blamed lack of political will as an impediment to implementation of the Constitution.
They also cite corruption (20 per cent) lack of cohesion (17 per cent) lack of citizen’s awareness (6 per cent) as some of the issues that will stall the process.
A majority noted that although the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC) is committed to stamping out corruption, the vice continues to thrive.
According to the polling, 56 per cent of Kenyans feel corruption has increased in the last six months, while 21 per cent say the vice has decreased and 19 per cent note it has remained the same. But a majority of Kenyans said they have confidence that KACC is committed to eradicate corruption in the country.
Asked how committed institutions or personalities are in fighting corruption, KACC led with 78 per cent followed by Office of the Prime Minister (67 per cent), Office of the President (65 per cent) Office of the Vice President (54 per cent) Parliament (48 per cent) and Attorney General (42 per cent).
"Parliament scored highly as one of the institutions that is not at all committed to stamping out corruption," said Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri on Wednesday at their offices.