Tuesday, 27 July 2010
The Arab region's infant mortality rates are projected to decline to 34.3 per 1,000 live births in 2005-2010 (File)
New changes in the Arab World are to influence its population into decline, as more girls join schools, work, marry later and desire to produce fewer babies.
“Impressive declines in fertility have been recorded in the Arab region as a result of increased school enrolment among girls, stronger participation of women in the labor force, and the new trends towards “wait hood” or delayed marriage and the formation of smaller families,” said The U.N. Economic and Social Commission on Western Asia (ESCWA) in a report.
“According to the 2008 revision, the unweighted average total fertility rate for the Arab countries declined from 6.2 live births per woman in the period 1980-1985 to 3.3 in the period 2005-2010 compared to 2.6 at the world level, consequently reshaping the age structure of the population of the Arab region,” the ESCWA report added.
“Impressive declines in fertility have been recorded in the Arab region as a result of increased school enrolment among girls, stronger participation of women in the labor force, and the new trends towards “wait hood” or delayed marriage and the formation of smaller families,” said The U.N. Economic and Social Commission on Western Asia (ESCWA) in a report.
“According to the 2008 revision, the unweighted average total fertility rate for the Arab countries declined from 6.2 live births per woman in the period 1980-1985 to 3.3 in the period 2005-2010 compared to 2.6 at the world level, consequently reshaping the age structure of the population of the Arab region,” the ESCWA report added.
However, rates largely vary in individual countries; Egypt is projected to remain by far the most populous Arab country, reaching a total population of 91.8 million in 2015 and 98.6 million in 2020. Conversely, Comoros, Bahrain, Djibouti and Qatar will remain the countries with the smallest population size, with each accounting for less than 0.5 per cent of that of the Arab region.
Also, during 2005-2010, each of Lebanon, Tunisia and the UAE have fertility levels already below replacement level, whereas other countries are set to converge below 2.1 live births per woman by mid century, with the exception of Somalia, Palestine and Mauritania, the report said.
Also, during 2005-2010, each of Lebanon, Tunisia and the UAE have fertility levels already below replacement level, whereas other countries are set to converge below 2.1 live births per woman by mid century, with the exception of Somalia, Palestine and Mauritania, the report said.
Infant mortality rates to decline
According to the report, infant mortality rates (IMRs) in the region are projected to decline to 34.3 per 1,000 live births in 2005-2010.
Currently the lowest IMRs are found in Qatar (8.3/1000), Kuwait (9.1/1000), the UAE (9.7/1000) and Bahrain (9.9/1,000), the report showed.
Other countries that are likely to remain in excess than the world’s average of 43.2 deaths per 1,000 live births are Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritania, the Sudan, Yemen and Comoros. Somalia will remain to have the highest level of infant mortality through 2050 at 48.3 per 1,000 live births.
Currently the lowest IMRs are found in Qatar (8.3/1000), Kuwait (9.1/1000), the UAE (9.7/1000) and Bahrain (9.9/1,000), the report showed.
Other countries that are likely to remain in excess than the world’s average of 43.2 deaths per 1,000 live births are Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritania, the Sudan, Yemen and Comoros. Somalia will remain to have the highest level of infant mortality through 2050 at 48.3 per 1,000 live births.
Increased life expectancy
Both at global and regional levels, the report said that the 20th century witnessed an unprecedented improvement in life expectancy and infant mortality.
“Today both men and women live 20 years more than they did 50 years ago,” it said
“Significant gains in life expectancy for both males and females were achieved in the Arab region during the past three decades. In 1980-1985, the unweighted average life expectancy at birth for the region was estimated at 58.8 years for males and 62.2 years for females; this increased to 67.5 and 71.2 years for males and females in 2005-2010 respectively,” it added.
“In other words, both men and women in the Arab region are currently living nine years longer than they did in the 1980s…..this increasing trend is projected to continue for all Arab countries to varying degrees.”
In the GCC, the richest region in the Arab world, life expectancy at birth is expected to keep on rising to reach a maximum of 82 years for both sexes in each of Kuwait and the UAE by mid century, it said.
However, Somalia, Mauritania, Sudan, Yemen and Djibouti were unable to meet the 2005 target to reach 65 years in life expectancy. The 2005 target was set by the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo in 1994. Moreover, these countries, in addition to Comoros, will unlikely meet the target of 70 years in 2015.
“Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline according to the medium variant scenario, the total population of the region is projected to reach 428.4 million or 5.6 per cent of the world population by 2020.”
“Today both men and women live 20 years more than they did 50 years ago,” it said
“Significant gains in life expectancy for both males and females were achieved in the Arab region during the past three decades. In 1980-1985, the unweighted average life expectancy at birth for the region was estimated at 58.8 years for males and 62.2 years for females; this increased to 67.5 and 71.2 years for males and females in 2005-2010 respectively,” it added.
“In other words, both men and women in the Arab region are currently living nine years longer than they did in the 1980s…..this increasing trend is projected to continue for all Arab countries to varying degrees.”
In the GCC, the richest region in the Arab world, life expectancy at birth is expected to keep on rising to reach a maximum of 82 years for both sexes in each of Kuwait and the UAE by mid century, it said.
However, Somalia, Mauritania, Sudan, Yemen and Djibouti were unable to meet the 2005 target to reach 65 years in life expectancy. The 2005 target was set by the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo in 1994. Moreover, these countries, in addition to Comoros, will unlikely meet the target of 70 years in 2015.
“Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline according to the medium variant scenario, the total population of the region is projected to reach 428.4 million or 5.6 per cent of the world population by 2020.”
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