The Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab has largely lagged other such groups when targeting attacks abroad and recruiting foreign fighters, but new leadership could change that, an international security expert recently said.
The Islamic insurgent group has been using violence to gain control in Somalia and impose Sharia law since 2006. Al-Shabaab lost territory, most notably in 2011, when it was pushed out of the country's capital city of Mogadishu by coalition forces.
Amid this backdrop, the group's changing leadership is determining whether it should pursue a greater foreign focus, said Vanda Felbab-Brown, who is a senior fellow of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution"They are clearly involved in attacks abroad, certainly in Kenya," she said during a May 21 event. "But there is also broader language about hitting the foreign enemy."
One reason the number of foreign fighters joining al-Shabaab has remained low is because many traveling from the United States to Somalia were treated badly, she said, adding that al-Shabaab leadership now recognizes that that policy was counterproductive and is looking to change course.
Al-Shabaab's foreign agenda could rely largely on the type of relationship it wants to have with the Islamic State, commonly referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, which is emerging as the biggest threat in the region since al-Qaeda.
Al-Shabaab swore allegiance to al Qaeda in 2012. However, Felbab-Brown said it's been an "uneasy" relationship.
"They nominally embraced al-Qaeda," she explained. "In many ways, they still continued operating very locally, and certainly – although they embraced al-Qaeda – Shabaab was and is a Somali movement."
The terrorist group is now determining to what extent it wants to compete or collaborate with ISIS, which has attracted money, resources and foreign fighters, said Felbab-Brown.
Not only is "hot, dusty" Somalia a less appealing environment to travel to than Iraq or Syria for training and fighting, ISIS is viewed as a rising star in the terrorist world, she added.
"If you are foreign donor who is thrilled by the version of Islam that groups like ISIS and al-Shabaab offer, do you give money to the hot kid on the block taking over large territories – ISIS – or do you give money to al-Shabaab that is not gone but certainly nowhere in the field position that they were in 2009?" Felbab-Brown posed.
Such strategic decisions are facing the group as its leadership changes.
Just last week al-Shabaab announced the death of one of its leaders, Sheikh Hassan Turki, also known as Hassan Abillahi Hersi Turki. CNN reports that Turki was believed to be in his 70s and was involved in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
For more:
- go to the event page (includes event information and transcript)
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