Somalia needs global help

 

Opinion | Columnists

Focusing on strengthening regional governments may offer an alternative to the enduring chaos

• By Francis Matthew, Editor at Large
• Published: 00:00 March 1, 2012

• Image Credit: ©Gulf News

Somalia is the Arab world's one complete failure. Following the end of the rule of the former dictator, Mohammad Siad Barre, in 1991, all semblance of national government collapsed, tens of thousands of people have been killed in fighting over 20 years of civil war, and hundreds of thousands have starved to death and more than 13 million people have been affected by famine and drought over Somalia and its neighbours.
The country has become a byword for disaster, and numerous attempts to restore national governance have totally failed. Given this miserable situation, it is surprising that last week's London Conference on Somalia raised any expectations of improvement. But British Prime Minister David Cameron was supported by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when he spoke enthusiastically about a plan which included action on security, piracy, terrorism, humanitarian assistance, local stability, reinvigoration of the political process and international cooperation. He also welcomed the UN Security Council's decision to increase the number of African Union peacekeepers from 12,000 to 17,000, with an expanded mandate.
The UAE represented the Arab world at the conference, and Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan welcomed the coherent and collective steps decided by the conference to counter the very difficult humanitarian and political conditions. During the conference Shaikh Abdullah reported on the success of a special Arab League meeting on Somalia the previous week in Cairo, and emphasised that the UAE is working on invigorating the role of Arabs, and Gulf Cooperation Council states in particular, to achieve a deeper understanding of what will be required to help Somalia come right.
Scourge

The international community is well aware that the continued disintegration of Somalia encourages piracy and extremism, which is exported around the world. The continuing scourge of piracy in the Arabian Sea, and the ghastly possibility that Yemen may slip into a similar situation, has concentrated people's minds to help find some kind of answer for Somalia.
A thoughtful policy briefing on Somalia published last month by the International Crisis Group, makes clear that the next six months offer a window of opportunity, "as the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government [which only controls the suburbs of the capital Mogadishu] expires in six months".
In addition, the troops of the recently successful African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) have weakened although not yet eliminated the Islamist group Al Shabab, and both Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to support further action against Al Shabab.
The real challenge the contact group of the London Conference will face will be how to find a more robust and inclusive structure than the current Transitional Federal Government, so that as Amisom scores more successes, it does not just offer the Somali people a political vacuum. The gap in the conclusions of the London Conference was that nothing specific emerged on how to make this happen. In the absence of an operating national government, the constructive alternative could be to start work on strengthening regional governments
However, if the contact group succeeds in bringing the leaders of the important southern clans into a new government, and international support gives the new authority something to work with, then there may be some hope for the people of southern Somalia. Their former compatriots in the north already have two rather more stable regimes.
A large area with a northern coastline on the Gulf of Aden facing Yemen is the former colony of British Somaliland, which has a functioning government and calls itself Somaliland. It is stable and has held several successful elections, but has campaigned internationally for recognition as an independent state so may not want to be lumped back in with the chaos of southern and central Somalia.
The other stable region is east of Somaliland in a large territory on the tip of the Horn of Africa, called Puntland. It is based on the territory of the former Warsangali Sultanate which goes back several centuries. Puntland has also held elections and has attracted some inward investment from countries including the UK and the UAE. However it does not want independence, but seeks some kind of autonomy in a yet-to-be-reconstituted Somalia.
Rebuild governance
But at this stage it would be very difficult to imagine some kind of grand bargain for all Somalia. Even if the two northern entities wanted to talk, the southern and central regions are still in complete chaos and have nothing to offer. Therefore, the essential task is to rebuild governance, and the interesting suggestion in the International Crisis Group (ICG) briefing is to work with the local administrations and build these "sub-national entities into a quasi-national governmental framework that respects the [regional] suspicion that Mogadishu will try to assert direct control".
The London Conference called for a local stability fund to help these local governments gain capacity and rapidly provide results to their cynical populations. As ICG puts it: "These local bodies would have to be economically viable, administer law and order, be committed to peace and renounce terror, and be willing to engage in a national dialogue to create a stable state."
With this kind of thinking in place, and funds being made available to support it, there may be a chink of light in Somalia's very dark tunnel, which is extraordinary after more than 20 years of mayhem and disaster.